With the rapid growth of new energy vehicles, the time for power battery recycling is approaching. As more batteries reach the end of their life, China's recycling infrastructure and technology will face significant challenges in the coming years.
Over the past two years, the new energy vehicle market has experienced explosive growth. Globally, sales reached 528,000 units in 2015, rising to 770,000 in 2016—a 42% year-on-year increase. By January to November 2017, global sales surpassed 1 million units, with estimates suggesting over 1.1 million units for the full year. By 2020, annual sales are expected to hit 3 million units, marking a major shift in the automotive industry.
China has emerged as the world leader in new energy vehicle adoption. In 2016, the country sold 507,000 new energy vehicles, and by January to November 2017, that number rose to 609,000—an impressive 51.4% increase. The domestic market is projected to reach around 700,000 units annually. According to national plans, by 2020, production and sales of new energy vehicles are expected to reach 2 million units, with total numbers exceeding 5 million.
As new energy vehicles grow in popularity, so does the challenge of power battery recycling. Some batteries are already entering the retirement phase, and the need for efficient recycling systems is urgent. Studies predict that by 2020, the amount of lithium-ion power batteries will reach 32.2 GWh, or about 500,000 tons. The overall recycling market is expected to be worth 15.6 billion yuan by then. By 2023, this could rise to 101 GWh, or approximately 1.16 million tons.
The first wave of retired power batteries is expected to arrive in 2018, with rapid growth in the following three years. With a compound annual growth rate of 40.84%, the lithium battery recycling market is projected to reach 156 billion yuan by 2020.
There are two main approaches to power battery recycling: ladder utilization and disassembly recovery. Once a battery’s performance drops below 80% of its original level, it may no longer meet the demands of electric vehicles but can still be used in lower-demand applications such as energy storage systems, distributed solar power, or low-speed electric vehicles. This is known as the “ladder use†stage.
When the battery is no longer suitable for any secondary use, it moves into the disassembly and recycling phase. While ladder utilization currently dominates the market, there are challenges related to battery size, type, and technological maturity. Companies must invest heavily in R&D to improve efficiency and reduce costs. Meanwhile, the government should support innovation to help build a sustainable recycling ecosystem.
Disassembly and recycling, on the other hand, ensure that batteries are processed safely and efficiently, returning materials to the supply chain. However, current recycling technologies still need significant improvements to fully extract valuable components.
Although the Chinese market for power battery recycling is large, the current volume of scrap is still small, and the recycling system remains underdeveloped. Enterprises are still in the early stages of research and development, and the disposal of used batteries is in the market cultivation phase. As more batteries reach the end of their life, investment in business models and technological advancements in recycling, transportation, and reuse will become critical.
Currently, two main technical routes are being explored for lithium battery recycling: dry metallurgy and hydrometallurgy. Hydrometallurgy has already been successfully applied to consumer-grade lithium batteries, and once adapted for power batteries, it could overcome many technical barriers.
As attention on lithium battery recycling grows, automakers and battery manufacturers are accelerating their efforts in this area. A tripartite structure—comprising lithium material suppliers, battery system producers, and third-party recyclers—is beginning to take shape. This helps extend the industrial chain, enhance competitiveness, and ensure raw material supply.
From the perspective of battery systems, setting up recycling channels for retired batteries through self-construction or partnerships can ease pressure on upstream material prices and downstream vehicle costs. For material companies, recycling provides an additional source of raw materials, reduces procurement costs, and strengthens the entire industrial loop.
In addition, specialized recycling firms have advantages in both channel networks and technical capabilities. They often operate across multiple sources, including auto repair shops, battery manufacturers, and scrapping centers. Their broader access to waste batteries allows for more efficient collection and processing.
Despite these developments, environmental risks remain high. Many OEMs have not taken concrete steps to recycle batteries, often shifting responsibility to battery manufacturers. If not properly handled, discarded batteries can lead to hazardous solid waste and pollution from heavy metals and organic compounds.
While new energy vehicles are environmentally friendly, effective battery recycling is essential. A robust management system is needed to regulate the process, especially since traditional vehicle recycling has long suffered from informal practices and lack of oversight.
To address these issues, China has introduced several policies aimed at standardizing battery recycling. These include guidelines on cascade utilization, recycling responsibilities, and the establishment of a comprehensive recycling system. In 2017, the first national standard for vehicle power battery dismantling was released, marking an important step forward.
Industry experts believe that while current standards have improved regulations, they still lack coverage for battery size and model diversity. Standardization is key to ensuring smooth operations, but flexibility is also necessary to allow for innovation and competition.
Looking ahead, the power battery recycling market is expected to grow significantly by 2018, with recycling companies benefiting from economies of scale. Although short-term breakthroughs may be difficult, the integration of upstream and downstream industries is accelerating, and the foundation for a sustainable recycling ecosystem is being laid.
Ultimately, the success of this industry depends on clear regulations, strong standards, and coordinated efforts between all stakeholders. Only through these measures can China fully realize the potential of power battery recycling and support the long-term sustainability of the new energy vehicle sector.
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