Power demand rebounds and supply is smooth

It is expected that the supply and demand of electricity will continue to maintain its steady state in 2013, and supply and demand will be balanced overall.

Specifically, electricity demand will increase slightly from the previous year, and no accident will surpass the growth rate of 5.5% in 2012. However, it should not exceed double-digit growth, and demand growth should be around 7% to 8%; There are no big problems.

The demand for electricity has stabilized and picked up. It is difficult to overestimate the growth rate of GDP. As China's economy will maintain its momentum of recovery, the growth in electricity demand in 2013 will be around 7% to 8%.

In 2013, the economic situation in China will be better than in the previous year.

Experts pointed out that from the perspective of the international economic situation, it is still complex and changeable. After a long period of adjustment after the financial crisis, although major economies in the world still do not see a major improvement, positive factors are increasing. In the downturn environment, trade protectionism has risen significantly in various countries, and will have a lasting negative impact on emerging economies that are strongly dependent on exports. On the whole, in 2013, the global economy was still in an adjustment period after the recession, which had limited effect on the overall economic pull of China.

Judging from the domestic situation, the party's 18th National Congress and the Central Economic Work Conference will propose the promotion of sustained and healthy economic development.

In the beginning of January 2013, the macro-economy also maintained a stable upward trend. Experts pointed out that under the general policy environment of steady progress in 2013, the expansion of domestic demand and industrial restructuring centered on urbanization will advance in an orderly manner. The steady rise in the price level will stimulate investment demand and the negative impact of external demand on the economy. It is expected to ease, and it is expected that the national economic growth rate for the whole year will exceed 2012.

According to the comprehensive analysis, in 2013, with the gradual improvement of the international economic situation and the further recovery of the domestic economic growth, China's power demand growth will increase.

However, taking into account the further deepening of China's economic restructuring, unit GDP energy consumption continues to decline, the growth rate of power demand is expected to be relatively moderate. In 2012, power consumption sustained growth of 7.8% of GDP at a growth rate of 5.5%. It is expected that the growth of electricity demand in 2013 will still hardly exceed the growth rate of GDP, and the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society will be around 7% to 8%. Among them, the electricity consumption of the tertiary industry and residents will continue to maintain high growth, and the secondary industry, especially heavy industry electricity consumption, will maintain a moderate trend.

The balance of power supply is flawless. Only in the event of a mild recovery in power demand, the power supply in 2013 will be able to meet the demand, and the supply and demand will be balanced overall.

After years of power construction, China's power production capacity has been greatly guaranteed. The world's largest power grid scale provides greater protection for power distribution and transmission capabilities. In terms of power generation, by the end of 2012, China’s total installed power capacity reached 1.144 billion kilowatts, including 819 million kilowatts of thermal power, 249 million kilowatts of hydropower, 62.37 million kilowatts of wind power, and 12.57 million kilowatts of nuclear power. In 2012, when power demand was low, the average utilization hours of electricity generation in the country was not high at only 4,572 hours. According to the above-mentioned power demand analysis, at present, China's power production capacity is sufficient to meet the power demand growth of about 7.5%.

The decisive factor is the supply of coal and rivers. Since the supply and demand intensity of electric coal has been weakened for some time, and electricity coal production, inventory and supply are relatively loose, it is unlikely that the supply of coal will be reversed in the coming year. With the increase in emission reduction pressure and structural adjustment, there should be no problem in the supply and demand of coal for a period of time. The hydropower is "seeing the sky to eat". Judging from the current situation, the water level of the reservoir is normal, and hydroelectric power generation should be harmless.

A variable related to "sky" is an extreme weather factor. Experts point out that if extreme weather persists during summer and winter, it will have a short-term high impact on electricity demand and supply. In terms of demand, air-conditioning load and heating load are prone to spikes. At the same time, extreme weather will also affect the supply of coal and rivers and rivers. Experts predict that under such circumstances, in some parts of North China and East China in 2013, there may be tight supply and demand conditions during certain periods.