The current unmanned craze began in 2005 with the DARPA Grand Challenge, organized by the US Department of Defense. In 2004, no teams managed to complete the race, but in 2005, many teams successfully completed the course. Stanford University and Carnegie Mellon University took first and second place respectively.
In 2007, the DARPA Urban Challenge shifted the focus to urban road conditions. This time, Carnegie Mellon University, Stanford University, and Virginia Tech University won first, second, and third places respectively.
Through these competitions, the potential of driverless technology was demonstrated to the world. Google recognized this potential and in 2009, Sebastian Thrun, head of the Stanford AI Lab and leader of the Stanford team in the DARPA challenge, joined Google and continued his work on autonomous driving. Google X was officially established in January 2010.
From 2009 to June 2016, Google's autonomous vehicles had driven a total of 2,777,585 kilometers. In August 2016 alone, they traveled 202,777 kilometers. As of now, their vehicles have accumulated over 5 million kilometers. The latest technology allows for an average of 8,000 kilometers between manual interventions.
In December 2016, Google split its driverless business from Google X and established the independent company Waymo. Thanks to Google's push, driverless technology gained widespread attention in Silicon Valley, and Google's technology is now considered the most advanced in the world.
Tesla has also been exploring driverless technology since the end of 2014, offering an optional "assisted driving package" using Mobileye's ADAS technology. However, due to differences in technical approaches, Tesla ended its partnership with Mobileye in July 2016. Now, Tesla relies on 8 surround cameras, 1 millimeter wave radar, and 12 ultrasonic sensors.
Tesla's ambitions include achieving full autonomy by the end of 2017 and being fully operational by 2019. While Tesla's system uses cameras for object recognition, it is generally considered less safe than other systems. Tesla claims that its vehicles have accumulated 1.3 billion miles under assisted driving mode, with a low accident rate, suggesting their system performs twice as well as human drivers.
However, in May 2016, a Tesla owner was involved in a serious accident while using the auto-driving mode. Investigations found that Tesla had included disclaimers requiring the driver to remain attentive. Despite this, Tesla claims its technology can achieve "fully autonomous" driving at Level 4, though users are still required to act as drivers.
Although Tesla's approach is more radical, its large consumer base has drawn significant attention from investors. Google's cars, while more advanced, are less visible on the roads, whereas Tesla's cars offer a more tangible experience of driverless technology.
Tesla is also skilled at generating media attention, which has helped fuel the driverless craze. Companies like Uber and Apple have also entered the field. Uber launched its driverless services in 2015, using multi-sensor fusion technology, and acquired Otto in 2016. However, their technology has not met expectations, with only 43 vehicles in operation and limited success.
Apple, through Project Titan, aimed to develop a fully autonomous electric vehicle but later shifted focus to software research. Despite this, Apple continues to invest in driverless technology.
When comparing the technical indicators of driverless companies, Google leads with a cumulative distance of 5 million kilometers and an average of 8,000 km between manual interventions. Other companies like Nissan and Uber lag significantly behind.
The gap between Level 4 and lower levels remains substantial, with safety requirements needing to be ten times that of human drivers before full autonomy is achievable. Google's progress has attracted investor confidence, leading to intense competition among companies striving to reach the final milestones.
The rise of driverless startups has further fueled the industry, with many companies focusing on Level 4 technology. These startups aim to develop cost-effective and safe solutions for the last five kilometers of driverless technology.
Driverless technology is classified into levels from 0 to 5. Level 2 and 3 are considered "assisted driving," where the driver remains responsible. Level 4 and above involve full autonomy in specific environments, requiring high security and reliability.
Sensors such as LiDAR, cameras, GPS, IMU, millimeter wave radar, and ultrasonic sensors are essential for driverless vehicles. LiDAR is particularly important for accurate spatial perception, although it is expensive. Startups are working on solid-state LiDAR to reduce costs and improve mass production.
While some companies rely heavily on camera-based systems, others integrate LiDAR and cameras for better performance. Deep learning algorithms are also being used to process LiDAR data, improving object recognition and safety.
Despite the excitement, concerns remain about whether driverless technology will meet expectations and achieve maturity in the near future. According to Gartner's Hype Cycle, driverless technology is nearing the peak of inflated expectations, with a long road ahead before it becomes widely adopted.
China presents unique challenges for driverless technology due to its complex road conditions. Translating algorithms developed in Silicon Valley to Chinese roads may not be effective. Therefore, there is a need for systems tailored to China's specific environment.
China's "Made in China 2025" plan outlines goals for autonomous driving, including increasing the share of intelligent vehicles and developing standards for fully autonomous driving. Many Chinese companies and universities are actively working on Level 4 driverless systems, conducting tests on highways and in enclosed areas.
Unmanned car towns are also emerging in China, with projects in Shenzhen and Zhangzhou aiming to create dedicated testing and living spaces for driverless technology. These initiatives reflect the growing interest and investment in the driverless industry in China.
Overall, the driverless industry is evolving rapidly, with significant advancements in technology and increasing competition among companies. While challenges remain, the future of driverless technology looks promising, with the potential to transform transportation and improve safety.
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