Barclays analyst C. J. Muse recently summarized the latest information on the recent memory market, and made five interesting predictions about the memory market situation in 2011. Let's take a look at what these five predictions are all about.
1. Memory is in decline. “2011 will be a year of NAND flash memory rather than DRAM memory. Tablet PCs are beginning to erode the market share of low-end notebooks/netbooks. In this case, small notebooks with a memory capacity of 2GB will gradually Replaced by tablet products with only 256Mb or 32Mb of memory, the memory market will be oversupply."
2. Entering the 3xnm Process Age "Overall, most memory chip vendors will use various 3xnm technology-based processes to manufacture memory chips. Samsung and Hynix are actively migrating to the 3xnm process. More interestingly, the Japanese company Elpida The company is planning to jump from a 65nm or 65nm reduced version of the process to a 3xnm node process. Once the conversion is complete, the cost of Elpida's memory chip products will be significantly reduced."
3. Korean manufacturers monopolize the memory chip market "From the market point of view, the situation is similar to the market strength of the NAND flash memory market, and the memory market is likely to present the situation that South Korean manufacturers are playing a leading role. At present, only South Korea's Samsung and Hynix can be called a first-tier memory manufacturer, while Micron, South Asia, and China are behind in the second group due to lack of financial strength and technical strength; Elpida, Powerchip, and Ruijing have lagged behind in financial and technical strength. The companies that are trying to catch up are in the third group.
Samsung is undoubtedly the boss of the DRAM memory industry. They almost dominated the NXT immersion lithography machine market that ASML produced as one of the necessities of 30nm process DRAM manufacturing. In this way, 2011 will be a big year for Samsung's market share. Compared to the 45-50% increase in global DRAM capacity production, Samsung’s growth rate can reach 70%.
Hynix is ​​the first-tier manufacturer after Samsung. Their current major problem is that debt is too heavy and the ownership structure is not reasonable. It is expected that these problems may be resolved in 2011. Hynix is ​​currently manufacturing 4x/3xnm process memory chip products at its Wuxi plant in China. Their product technology development is only behind Samsung. Next year they will shift from 8F2 to a more advanced 6F2 architecture, and their distance from Samsung will also be further reduced.
4. Facing the difficulties faced by the Magnifica, "Mgguang once appeared in the trend of entering the first group, and in fact it was widely recognized as a first-class manufacturer in 2009. However, under the current circumstances, it is conditional for the Magang to enter the ranks of the first group. This condition is that their memory chip product process must be successfully upgraded from the traditional trench capacitor structure to the top stacked capacitor structure. In fact, although this conversion process seems to have been smooth at the beginning of the year, this new The yield aspect of the process seems to have encountered certain problems. As a result, the production capacity of the memory of magnesium this year has not risen.
In fact, Micron's Taiwanese partners such as South Asia, Huaya, etc. did not go smoothly when they switched to the top stacked capacitor structure. Both companies are still working hard to improve the yield of the 50nm top stacking process. Not to the 40/30nm node evolution. However, the situation may be different in 2011. It is expected that at least these manufacturers will be able to successfully complete the conversion of the top stacked capacitor structure at that time. Moreover, Micron and its Taiwanese memory partners will have Formosa as a strong financial backer. The 40/3xnm process conversion process should be smooth.
However, it is worth noting that at this time, the company will allocate 2/3 of the capital investment to the NAND flash business in 2011.
5. Elpida's big gamble, Elpida has been struggling to squeeze into the "upstream society" of memory makers. They have partnerships with Taiwanese memory makers such as Rui Jing, Li Jing, Mao De, and Elpida is also preparing to be in Japan and Taiwan. The two countries' financial markets are making a gamble, and on the technical side, Elpida completed the transition to the 65nm XS process (a downsizing process for 65nm process), so that with the current rising memory prices, their 65nm memory chip products Still profitable, Elpida is also working hard to evolve to the 40/30nm node process.
1. Memory is in decline. “2011 will be a year of NAND flash memory rather than DRAM memory. Tablet PCs are beginning to erode the market share of low-end notebooks/netbooks. In this case, small notebooks with a memory capacity of 2GB will gradually Replaced by tablet products with only 256Mb or 32Mb of memory, the memory market will be oversupply."
2. Entering the 3xnm Process Age "Overall, most memory chip vendors will use various 3xnm technology-based processes to manufacture memory chips. Samsung and Hynix are actively migrating to the 3xnm process. More interestingly, the Japanese company Elpida The company is planning to jump from a 65nm or 65nm reduced version of the process to a 3xnm node process. Once the conversion is complete, the cost of Elpida's memory chip products will be significantly reduced."
3. Korean manufacturers monopolize the memory chip market "From the market point of view, the situation is similar to the market strength of the NAND flash memory market, and the memory market is likely to present the situation that South Korean manufacturers are playing a leading role. At present, only South Korea's Samsung and Hynix can be called a first-tier memory manufacturer, while Micron, South Asia, and China are behind in the second group due to lack of financial strength and technical strength; Elpida, Powerchip, and Ruijing have lagged behind in financial and technical strength. The companies that are trying to catch up are in the third group.
Samsung is undoubtedly the boss of the DRAM memory industry. They almost dominated the NXT immersion lithography machine market that ASML produced as one of the necessities of 30nm process DRAM manufacturing. In this way, 2011 will be a big year for Samsung's market share. Compared to the 45-50% increase in global DRAM capacity production, Samsung’s growth rate can reach 70%.
Hynix is ​​the first-tier manufacturer after Samsung. Their current major problem is that debt is too heavy and the ownership structure is not reasonable. It is expected that these problems may be resolved in 2011. Hynix is ​​currently manufacturing 4x/3xnm process memory chip products at its Wuxi plant in China. Their product technology development is only behind Samsung. Next year they will shift from 8F2 to a more advanced 6F2 architecture, and their distance from Samsung will also be further reduced.
4. Facing the difficulties faced by the Magnifica, "Mgguang once appeared in the trend of entering the first group, and in fact it was widely recognized as a first-class manufacturer in 2009. However, under the current circumstances, it is conditional for the Magang to enter the ranks of the first group. This condition is that their memory chip product process must be successfully upgraded from the traditional trench capacitor structure to the top stacked capacitor structure. In fact, although this conversion process seems to have been smooth at the beginning of the year, this new The yield aspect of the process seems to have encountered certain problems. As a result, the production capacity of the memory of magnesium this year has not risen.
In fact, Micron's Taiwanese partners such as South Asia, Huaya, etc. did not go smoothly when they switched to the top stacked capacitor structure. Both companies are still working hard to improve the yield of the 50nm top stacking process. Not to the 40/30nm node evolution. However, the situation may be different in 2011. It is expected that at least these manufacturers will be able to successfully complete the conversion of the top stacked capacitor structure at that time. Moreover, Micron and its Taiwanese memory partners will have Formosa as a strong financial backer. The 40/3xnm process conversion process should be smooth.
However, it is worth noting that at this time, the company will allocate 2/3 of the capital investment to the NAND flash business in 2011.
5. Elpida's big gamble, Elpida has been struggling to squeeze into the "upstream society" of memory makers. They have partnerships with Taiwanese memory makers such as Rui Jing, Li Jing, Mao De, and Elpida is also preparing to be in Japan and Taiwan. The two countries' financial markets are making a gamble, and on the technical side, Elpida completed the transition to the 65nm XS process (a downsizing process for 65nm process), so that with the current rising memory prices, their 65nm memory chip products Still profitable, Elpida is also working hard to evolve to the 40/30nm node process.