The introduction of new energy vehicle subsidy policy has created a tenfold increase in ternary battery space.

After encountering the “stop subsidy” at the beginning of 2016, the ternary battery will explode with the introduction of the new energy vehicle subsidy policy.

In the "Recommended Model Catalogue for Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles" issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on January 14, 2016, based on safety considerations, electric buses using ternary batteries failed to enter the catalogue, thus failing to enjoy government subsidies and exemption from taxation. Preferential policies.

The electric bus is an important position for the competition between the ternary lithium battery and the lithium iron phosphate battery. The new energy vehicle battery is the king. As a power battery that accounts for 40% of the cost of new energy vehicles, its product performance, reliability, cruising range and longevity determine the success or failure of new energy vehicles. The ternary lithium battery and the lithium iron phosphate battery have their own advantages and disadvantages. The former has outstanding advantages in product performance and cruising range, while the latter has outstanding advantages in safety reliability and long cycle.

In 2015, the electric passenger car's battery capacity was 9.63GWh (gigawatt hours), accounting for 61% of all new energy vehicles. The ternary battery that lost the electric bus position was in a downturn in the battle with lithium iron phosphate battery.

With the inventory fraud, policy plugging and entry barriers, the new energy vehicle subsidy policy is about to be released. It is reported that as a new energy bus segment that swindles the hardest hit areas, it will be the first to cut the subsidy quota. The subsidies for new energy passenger cars and fuel cell vehicles are relatively stable, and the signs of support for new energy special vehicles and new energy trucks are obvious.

Under the policy shift, the structure of the new energy vehicle market is about to change. As the market share of new energy buses declines, the proportion of new energy passenger cars, new energy special vehicles and new energy trucks will increase. As the latter three are mainly equipped with ternary batteries, the demand for ternary batteries is expected to increase significantly.

In fact, the policy shift for ternary batteries has already occurred in June. On June 20th, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the list of the “Catalogue of the Automotive Power Battery Industry Standards” (fourth batch). Among the 31 single companies and one system enterprise selected, the enterprise with the main business of ternary batteries reached 21 At home, the proportion is as high as 68%, which is significantly higher than the list of the previous three batches.

More importantly, the ternary battery is a technological development route that solves the "mileage anxiety", which is the main bottleneck that plagues the development of new energy vehicles. Due to the low energy density and poor low temperature performance of lithium iron phosphate battery, the new energy vehicle has poor endurance, and the driving range is the primary reference factor for consumers. Therefore, manufacturers need batteries with higher energy density, which is the ternary battery. Better than lithium iron phosphate battery. As a disruptor in the automotive industry, Tesla uses NCA's high-performance ternary material lithium battery, leading the industry's development trend.

At the same time, the "Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2012-2020)" promulgated by the State Council also mentioned that the energy density of EKG (cell energy density) to 2020 power battery module reaches 300Wh/kg (corresponding The energy density of single cells is at least 330Wh/kg or more, which makes more and more power battery companies and vehicle companies turn their attention to ternary lithium batteries.

Under the dual enthusiasm of technological development and policy support, Sanyuan Battery faces a window of explosive growth, and the market penetration rate is huge. In the short term, the ternary battery is expected to double, and the agency predicts that the demand for ternary batteries in 2016 is expected to double from 4.4 GWh in 2015 to 9.5 GWh; in the long run, ternary batteries have 10 times room for growth, 2020 The demand for the battery can reach 55.4GWh (including passenger cars) or 50.5GWh (excluding passenger cars), which is 11.6 times or 10.5 times higher than that in 2015.

The TGII is expected to be more optimistic. It expects that the demand for power batteries will be 32GWh in 2016, and the demand for ternary batteries will reach 12.5GWh, an increase of more than 200% year-on-year. Optimistic estimates, 2020 The demand for meta-battery is expected to reach 90GWh, which is more than 20 times compared to 2015.

During the “two sessions” in 2016, Minister of Industry and Information Technology Miao Wei stressed that there are two major bottlenecks in new energy vehicles, one of which is the product end. It is necessary to focus on the performance, reliability, cruising range and longevity of products represented by power batteries. . Among these major problems, the ternary lithium battery and the lithium iron phosphate battery have their own advantages and disadvantages. The former has outstanding advantages in product performance and cruising range, while the latter has outstanding advantages in reliability and long cycle.

In fact, "mileage anxiety" is the main bottleneck that plagues the development of new energy vehicles. The imperfections of charging facilities and the slow charging rate make people's "mileage anxiety" for new energy vehicles very prominent.

According to statistics, for the first car in the family, the cruising range must reach 320 kilometers to meet the daily use needs. Under the current lithium battery performance conditions, the cost of electric vehicles that reach this cruising range will be very high, and it is difficult to promote it on a large scale.

In order to balance the cost performance problem, the current mainstream new energy vehicles have a cruising range of 200 kilometers. With the gradual deepening of promotion, they continue to meet the needs of most consumers. The continuous improvement of cruising range has become an inevitable requirement for the development of new energy vehicles. .

Increasing the cruising range is nothing more than adding more batteries and increasing the energy density of the unit battery. Obviously, increasing the energy density of the unit battery is a more sustainable road. The positive electrode material is the most important factor determining the energy density of the lithium battery. .

Lithium-ion batteries can be divided into four battery routes: lithium cobalt oxide (LCO), lithium iron phosphate (LFP), lithium manganate (LMO), and ternary materials, and the full name of the ternary battery should be three. The material lithium battery, the official name should be nickel cobalt manganese oxide (NCM) and nickel cobalt lithium aluminate (NCA).

From the perspective of technological development, the first generation of cathode material is lithium cobaltate. Because it contains cobalt, it is not suitable for use as a power battery because it is high in cost. Therefore, it is mainly used in consumer electronics, and its energy density development is approaching the limit.

The second generation of cathode materials, including LMO, NCA and NCM, and LFP, can be used as cathode materials for power batteries. From the development trend, the energy density of NCM materials and LFP materials is higher, and the former is superior.

Among them, the ratio of nickel, cobalt and manganese in the NCM ternary material is not fixed, but can be adjusted. Among the three elements of NCM, nickel is the active element. The higher the proportion of nickel, the greater the energy density of the battery, and the lower the stability, which puts more demands on the battery process.

The evaluation of the power battery needs to consider various factors such as safety, cost, life, power performance, low temperature performance, rate performance, etc. The power battery of the ternary material has the characteristics of three elements of nickel, cobalt and manganese (or aluminum). It has the advantages of high specific capacity, good cycle performance and low cost. It has the best performance in the four major cathode materials systems.

First, the energy density is high and the tap density is high. The energy density of the ternary battery exceeds 200Wh/kg, while the energy density of the lithium iron phosphate battery is only 130-150Wh/g. The energy density of the ternary battery has a greater advantage than other systems, and there is room for further improvement. However, while the ternary material battery inherits the advantages of high energy density, it also indicates that it is more prone to explosion.

The high tap density ensures a better performance of the ternary battery's volumetric energy density, which is nearly double that of lithium iron phosphate, which can greatly save valuable space for passenger cars.

Second, the cost is lower. The cost and price of the ternary battery are basically the same as those of the lithium iron phosphate battery.

Again, the amount of cobalt used is reduced. The reserves of cobalt resources are relatively small, and may become a resource bottleneck for lithium batteries in the future. Compared with lithium cobalt oxide batteries, the amount of cobalt used in ternary batteries is much reduced, and the amount of cobalt in high-nickel ternary batteries is further reduced.

Just as Apple's mobile phone redefines the phone, Tesla has also redefined the car and opened the era of electric smart cars.

With its excellent product performance and creative design, Tesla has become the leading position in the new energy automobile industry, which has driven the rapid development of new energy vehicles. At the same time, Tesla's batteries lead the development direction of power batteries.

Before Tesla, the electric vehicle was mainly made of lithium iron phosphate. Until the Model S, which uses the ternary material NCA as the cathode material of the battery, was born, the ternary battery technology was gradually recognized.

The Tesla Model S has a cruising range of 486 kilometers and a battery capacity of 85KWh. It uses 8142 3.4Ah Panasonic 18650 NCA ternary batteries. The latest Model 3 continues to use the NCA ternary route to further clarify the ternary battery. Directional trend.

Although Tesla has not officially announced the new battery pack for the Model 3 model, Jeff Evanson, vice president of investment relations, said that the basic version of Model 3 will be equipped with a battery pack of less than 60KWh, and the single-charge mileage will exceed 215 miles (about 346 kilometers), and there are other higher configurations to choose from.

Tesla CTO JB Straubel revealed that the energy density of the Model 3 battery has increased by 30% compared to the Model S.

Higher energy density means lower cost, which is the two major development directions of battery technology in the future. “In fact, when you increase the energy density of the battery, it also reduces the cost of the battery. In general, the cost we define refers to the raw materials in the battery. Therefore, if you want to reduce costs, the best way is to reduce Raw materials, increasing energy density," JB Straubel said.

Under the guidance of Tesla, the current international mainstream OEM has basically reversed the ternary battery route. In addition to the NCA that Tesla insists on, Japanese and Korean manufacturers mainly use NCM materials. At present, ternary batteries account for more than 80% of the global lithium-ion battery market, and occupy more than 81% of the market for electric vehicle batteries that require high output and safety.

In contrast, in China's domestic market, in 2015, domestic power battery shipments reached 15.7GWh, of which lithium iron phosphate batteries still dominate, accounting for nearly 69% of the market, and ternary battery shipments accounted for only 27%.

China's domestic ternary battery market share is far below global standards. In addition to technical reasons, the disturbance of policy hands is also an important factor.

In the development of new energy vehicles, the policy encouragement of governments has played a vital role. Since 2009, China has released the Catalogue of Recommended Models for Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicle Demonstration and Application Projects. By 2015, a total of 76 batches have been released. Various preferential policies and subsidies for new energy vehicles that meet the standards have greatly stimulated the production and sales of new energy vehicles.

According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in 2015, China's new energy vehicle production was 340,500 units, with sales of 331,100 units, up 3.3 times and 3.4 times respectively. Among them, the new energy passenger car occupied the leading demand of the downstream electric vehicle market with a market share of 61%, while the new energy passenger car and the new energy special vehicle accounted for 27% and 12% respectively.

The development of new energy vehicles is in full swing, the production and sales data has been refreshed again and again, and the stock prices of listed companies have hit record highs, injecting fresh blood into the cold-blooded down economy, bringing new highlights and vitality. At the same time, the rapid development of the domestic new energy automobile industry has created a huge market demand for lithium batteries, and the power lithium battery industry is becoming a new outlet.

However, many problems behind the rapid development of the new energy automobile industry are worth pondering. For example, in the context of imperfect policies, bad money and good money, many defective products enter the market and cause security risks. At the same time, the "criminal compensation" under the policy loophole is staggering. For example, some of the derelict cars will not be seen after they are sold, and they will be idle after taking the subsidy. Even after removing the batteries and reassembling, they will apply for a new round of subsidies.

Therefore, the inventory of “cheat” has become the main theme of the new energy auto industry policy in 2016, and due to the complexity of the “cheat” incident, while the relevant departments inspected the deception, the new energy sources scheduled to be released in July in various places in 2016. Subsidy policies have been delayed. According to the provinces and cities that have introduced subsidy policies, although the subsidy policies vary from place to place, the overall direction is to reduce the proportion of subsidies and limit the amount of subsidies. This is especially true for subsidies to defraud new energy buses in the hardest hit areas.

Against this background, from January to October 2016, the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles in China was approximately 337,000 units, an increase of 82.2% year-on-year. Although the overall sales volume showed a year-on-year increase, the monthly sales growth in recent months continued to decline. Among them, the sales growth in August-October was 92.2%, 43.8%, and 8.1%, respectively.

At the same time as the investigation of "cheat", security has become another important consideration for policy, and this directly impacts the ternary battery.

As of the end of 2015, as China's new energy vehicle sales exceeded 300,000 units, the number of possessions has reached 500,000 units. The market has gradually entered the growth period from the introduction period, and further improving the safety and stability of power batteries has become an industry consensus.

A data that has not been officially confirmed, but widely quoted, said that since 2011, at least 22 new energy vehicle fire accidents have occurred in the country, and among them, the fire caused by the excessive temperature of the power battery is relatively large. Therefore, the ternary battery with controversial safety has been pushed to the cusp.

At the beginning of 2016, some companies submitted a letter to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on the proposal to suspend the use of ternary material-powered lithium-ion batteries on electric commercial vehicles, saying that ternary material-powered lithium-ion batteries are compared with lithium iron phosphate-powered lithium-ion batteries. The safety risks are high, and commercial vehicles (especially commercial buses) have more occupants, and serious accidents may occur in the event of an accident. Therefore, it is recommended that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology suspend the use of ternary material-powered lithium-ion batteries on electric commercial vehicles.

To this end, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Notice on the proposal to suspend the use of ternary materials for lithium-ion batteries on commercial vehicles" to solicit opinions from enterprises, soliciting opinions from all parties, causing widespread concern in the market. At the same time, the leaders of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said at the industry conference: "The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will organize the risk assessment of the ternary lithium battery. Before the evaluation is completed, the ternary lithium battery bus will be suspended for the list of recommended models for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles."

Sure enough, in the “Recommended Model Catalogue for Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles” issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on January 14, 2016, the ternary electric commercial bus disappeared.

The explanation given by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is that the ternary lithium battery has higher energy and better cycle performance than the lithium iron phosphate battery. It is an important development direction for lithium batteries in the future, but in this field China started late and was used for the safety development and verification of passenger cars. Not enough, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is considering further improving the safety technology threshold for new energy vehicle products, and organizing risk assessments for vehicles such as ternary lithium battery buses under the current safety standard system.

Since the power battery consumption of new energy buses accounts for 61% of all new energy vehicles, this important position has been lost. For the ternary battery-related industrial chain, it is not bad for the industry, and the downstream market has seen a significant decline, directly affecting the ternary The development of battery companies.

Data show that in the first half of 2016, ternary battery shipments accounted for a further decline in 2015. In the first half of the year, lithium iron phosphate battery shipments reached 4.9GWh, accounting for 74%; ternary battery shipments were 1.53GWh, accounting for 23%.

However, the policy’s intention to “suspend subsidies” for ternary batteries is not to kill a stick. It is mainly to constrain the regulated industry and the market. After all, it is superior to other materials in terms of energy density, low temperature characteristics, power characteristics and high temperature storage. The ternary material is a force that cannot be ignored in the cathode material of lithium batteries.

Soon, the ternary battery ushered in the spring of policy. On June 20th, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology publicized the catalogue of “Regulations on the Standards of Automotive Power Battery Industry” (fourth batch). A total of 32 enterprises were selected, of which 21 enterprises with main business of ternary batteries accounted for 68%.

"Automobile Power Battery Industry Standard Conditions" was issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology to guide the healthy development of the automotive power battery industry and establish a battery industry access specification for product production specifications and quality assurance systems. Three batches of catalogues have been announced, totaling 25 The battery cell company was selected. The fourth batch of battery catalogues was announced, and the coverage of single-unit enterprises has basically covered major manufacturers in the domestic power battery industry, and the uncertainty of battery business has been eliminated. In addition, unlike the first three batches of catalogues, the proportion of companies involved in ternary batteries in the fourth batch of catalogues has increased significantly.

At the same time, the ternary battery has opened up new positions in the new energy passenger cars that have come to the fore.

According to the statistics of China Battery Network, due to the high growth of new energy vehicle sales, domestic power battery shipments continued to increase. In 2015, shipments were 15.7GWh, up 3.2 times year-on-year. In the first half of 2016, shipments were 6.67GWh, up 1.5. Times.

From the perspective of downstream demand, the growth rate of new energy passenger vehicles is relatively fast. In 2015, the proportion of total shipments was less than 30%. In the first half of 2016, shipments were 3.16GWh, accounting for 47%; new energy passengers accounted for It has declined, accounting for more than 60% in 2015. In the first half of 2016, shipments were 3.22GWh, accounting for 48%. Pure electric vehicles were affected by the schedule of new energy vehicles. In the first half of 2016, shipments were 0.29GWh. The proportion is only 5%.

Affected by this, the carrying capacity of ternary batteries in different fields has also changed significantly compared with the full year of 2015. In the first half of 2016, the output of the ternary battery was almost completely covered by the new energy passenger car model, reaching 1.15 GWh, and only a small amount was carried in the field of new energy buses and special vehicles, which were 38.55 MWh and 74.12 MWh respectively. The ternary battery has a capacity of 1.19 GWh in the passenger car field in 2015, which is a small gap from the power battery capacity of special-purpose vehicles and passenger cars.

According to industry sources, the revised new energy subsidy policy is likely to no longer exclude the ternary battery, and its subsidy standard is very beneficial to the ternary battery industry chain.

First of all, in the follow-up subsidy policy, the introduction of "battery system quality ratio", "Ekg" and "ton 100 kilometers of energy consumption" and other indicators, objectively guiding the industry to use high energy density battery system.

The previously announced "Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2012-2020)" requires that the energy density and system cost requirements of energy-type batteries are updated from 300Wh/kg and 1.5 yuan/Wh to 350Wh/kg and 1.0 yuan/Wh, respectively. . The theoretical energy density of the lithium iron phosphate system is only 200Wh/kg, which is completely impossible to achieve. To achieve the above objectives, only the ternary battery is used.

It is reported that according to the new subsidy standards, the subsidy standards for new energy buses will undergo major changes. Pure electric buses will be subsidized according to energy density, paying attention to the high quality of batteries.

According to the version passed out, the subsidy standard is divided according to the energy density. The subsidy coefficient is 1.2 times higher than 120Wh/kg, the subsidy coefficient is 0.8 times lower than 110Wh/kg, and the standard subsidy coefficient is 110-120Wh/kg. Corresponding to 1800 yuan / kWh.

According to Guotai Junan's calculation, the new version of subsidies is carried out according to energy density and power. The energy density is high and the decrease is small, while the energy density is low. Based on the data of a number of car companies, the subsidies generally fell between 30% and 50%, which is greater than the rumored subsidy standard in April.

Guotai Junan said that the decline in subsidies will accelerate the transformation of the new pattern of new energy bus production. Subsequent vehicle manufacturers will have two major changes: First, the redesign of products, manufacturers will abandon the goal of lightweight, and turn to the high energy of batteries. Density, increasing the charge of bicycles, is a test for upstream battery companies; the second is the re-transformation of the operating model, such as a small battery two-point fast charge and other modes are bound to be subverted. As the technical bottleneck of the lithium iron phosphate route begins to emerge, the subsequent lifting of the ternary technical route is worth looking forward to.

According to the new policy, passenger car subsidies have not declined, and the policy center has gradually shifted to passenger cars. Moreover, the new subsidy policy encourages passenger cars to have longer cruising range, and the proportion of ternary power batteries will increase significantly.

According to the new standard, the subsidies for pure electric passenger cars that last for more than 150 kilometers are basically unchanged, but the subsidy standard for passenger cars with a battery life of 100-150 km has dropped drastically, which will encourage car companies to introduce models with longer cruising range. It also means that pure electric passenger cars need to increase battery capacity or use higher energy density batteries, ternary power batteries will be the general direction.

Under the circumstance, according to the forecast of GF Securities (000776, shares), the new energy bus will be affected by the subsidy adjustment in the short-term. In 2016, the overall sales volume of passenger cars may drop to around 68,000. In the long run, subsidy adjustment will be conducive to the sustainable development of new energy buses.

In the short-term, the new energy passenger car is affected by the extrusion effect of the first-tier cities and the penetration of the A00 and A0 vehicles in the second and third-tier cities. The medium and long-term battery core cost is declining and the construction of charging piles is accelerated. It is expected that the sales volume in 2016 is expected to double. Up to 400,000 vehicles; for new energy special vehicles (including logistics vehicles), it is expected that the new version of the subsidy program will be greatly increased, and the new energy special vehicles will enjoy the policy dividend. It is expected that the sales volume will reach 100,000 or more in 2016.

In recent years, subsidies for new energy buses have greatly stimulated the development of the industry. Giving priority to the development of public transportation systems and the promotion of new energy vehicles are an important part of the development of urban transportation in China. The state has successively introduced subsidies for multiple rounds of new energy buses, which is significantly higher than the subsidy level of other models, and affected by this, entering new energy sources. The number of enterprises in the passenger car sector has increased, the number of products has increased, and the social capital has become hot.

In 2015, new energy buses began to exert their strength. The output of the year was 113,100 units, an increase of nearly 6 times compared with the same period of last year. It is much higher than the double-speed growth of pure electric passenger vehicles. The compound growth rate in the past five years is nearly 100%. The penetration rate climbed sharply from 1.79% in 2014 to 19.14%.

However, with the spurt growth of new energy buses, various "cheats" problems have surfaced, and subsidy policy adjustments have become imperative. Several versions that have been circulated in the past have different differences in specific subsidy standards, but the direction It is the same – to break the business model that can make a profit regardless of whether there is real demand or only by subsidies.

GF Securities believes that considering the impact of subsidies adjustment for short-term new energy passenger vehicles, in 2016, the overall sales volume of new energy buses will drop to about 68,000, and the consumption will be reduced to about 6GWh, that is, new energy. Passenger car sales will fall by about 40% year-on-year, and battery consumption will fall by about 35%.

For new energy vehicles, new energy passenger vehicles are the most important. It is an important pillar for the government to complete the sales of 2 million new energy vehicles in 2020. The policy tilt will boost the rapid development of passenger vehicles.

In April 2016, the Ministry of Public Security issued a special number plate for new energy vehicles to solicit opinions. In order to better promote the development of new energy vehicles, better distinguish and identify new energy vehicles, and implement differentiated traffic management policies, China will use special license plates for new energy vehicles. . It is expected that new energy vehicles will be introduced in the country, such as unlimited roads, reduction of road and bridge fees, reduction of parking fees and other related policies, to stimulate the consumption of new energy passenger cars.

At the same time, local governments are increasingly supporting new energy vehicles, not only with financial subsidies, but also with separate shakes before buying a car (or even directly on the cards), and related policies after purchase. At present, the difficulty of getting on the cards in big cities is becoming more and more obvious. The rate of winning in Beijing is as low as 0.15%. However, Shanghai license plates even appear more expensive than the price of cars. The preferential policies for new energy vehicles have greatly promoted the rapid rise of passenger cars.

Based on the above factors, the new energy passenger car will replace the new energy bus as the main product of the production and sales explosion, and the driving force for the growth of production and sales will be from the policy to the market, especially after the declining trend of the new energy subsidy policy is clear, this conversion may be accelerated. process.

GF Securities believes that due to the high technical requirements for new energy passenger cars, the “cheat” situation is not serious, and policy adjustments are expected to have little impact on them. In the short term, the first-tier cities will be able to double the impact of the extrusion effect and the penetration of A00 and A0 models in the second and third-tier cities. More than 10,000 vehicles.

At the same time, under the impetus of urban logistics, new energy special vehicles also ushered in development opportunities. After the new subsidy policy has been put on the ground, due to the wide application field of new energy special vehicles and huge promotion space, GF Securities expects to achieve sales of more than 100,000 vehicles in 2016.

The outbreak of new energy passenger cars and special-purpose vehicles will drive the rapid development of the ternary battery market. Compared with the limitation in the field of new energy buses, ternary batteries have outstanding advantages in performance, longer cruising range and better low temperature performance. Therefore, passenger car and logistics vehicle companies have turned to ternary batteries.

According to the statistics of the seventh batch and the eighth batch of the catalogue of new energy vehicle models exempted from vehicle purchase tax announced by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in April and June 2016, 58 new models of pure electric passenger vehicles are launched in the new catalogue. With 49 electric cores, the penetration rate of ternary batteries in the field of pure electric passenger vehicles is as high as 84%.

Although the pure electric logistics vehicle has not yet entered the recommended model catalogue, from the list of the latest two batches of "Road Motor Vehicle Manufacturing Enterprises and Products Announcement", there are 278 pure electric logistics vehicles and 183 models with ternary batteries. Accounting for 66%, the trend of ternary batteries to accelerate the replacement of lithium iron phosphate batteries is very obvious.

According to a certain securities, compared with lithium iron phosphate, the ternary lithium battery has the characteristics of high energy density and high voltage, which makes the electric vehicle have good endurance and battery weighting advantages, and superimposes the national technical standard on the battery system quality and electricity. The consumption index puts forward strict requirements, and the proportion of ternary batteries in various types of vehicles will continue to rise.

In 2015, the market penetration of ternary batteries in passenger cars, passenger cars and special vehicles reached 11%, 44% and 59% respectively. With the accelerated mass production of the passenger vehicle market in 2016 and the special-purpose vehicle market ushered in the first year of heavy volume, Industrial Securities expects that the penetration rate of ternary batteries in the passenger car and special-purpose vehicles market will reach 65% and 75%. At the same time, with the continuous improvement of the ternary battery process to ensure its safety, the passenger car field is expected to be released. It is expected that the penetration rate of the ternary battery in the passenger car market will reach 2%.

A certain securities combines the requirements of different types of electric vehicles for the performance of lithium-ion batteries. The battery energy required for each special vehicle is 12KWh, the battery energy required for each passenger vehicle is 45KWh, and the battery energy required for each passenger car is 250KWh. According to the estimated sales data of vehicles and special vehicles, the demand for ternary batteries for passenger cars, passenger cars and special vehicles in 2016 reached 1.19GWh, 7.6GWh and 0.75GWh respectively, and the total demand for ternary batteries reached 9.55GWh. More than double the year-on-year growth.

Another securities stock is expected to assume that in 2016, the proportion of ternary batteries in narrow-negative new energy passenger vehicles will increase from 46% to over 80%, while the proportion of passenger cars will increase slightly from 15% to 20%. Total battery demand will increase to 9.5GWh, more than double the sales in 2015.

In the long run, the relevant securities believe that under the background of the acceleration of new energy passenger vehicles and the rise of logistics vehicles during the “13th Five-Year Plan” period, it is assumed that the annual growth rate of new energy passenger vehicles will exceed 40%, and new energy buses will remain. The growth rate of 20% is steadily increasing, and the special vehicle has reached an annual compound growth rate of about 30%. Under the conservative estimate of the ternary battery penetration rate of 80%, 20% and 50% in the passenger car, passenger car and special vehicle market, It is estimated that by 2020, the demand for ternary batteries will be close to 60GWh driven by the downstream electric vehicle's heavy volume, and the average annual compound growth rate will exceed 60%.

The forecast of a security is relatively conservative, but it still believes that the ternary battery has 10 times room for growth. Whether the bus is lifted or not does not affect the long-term development trend.

According to the calculation of Zheshang Securities, in 2020, the market penetration rate of Sanyuan Battery in new energy buses, passenger cars and special vehicles reached 20%, 85% and 80% respectively. The battery demand of the three models increased compared with 2015. 126%, 838%, and 875%, the demand for ternary batteries increased by 312%, 1636%, and 1176%, respectively, and the total demand reached 55.4GWh, an increase of 11.6 times compared with 2015. Even if the government assumes that the use of ternary batteries on buses is not lifted (possibly small), the demand for ternary batteries in 2020 will reach 50.5 GWh, an increase of 10.5 times.

Relevant securities believe that the outbreak of the new energy auto sector will be similar to the Apple industry chain, which is expected to drive the overall valuation and performance of the relevant companies in the industry chain. According to the experience of individual stocks in the Apple industry chain, in the first stage, the new terminal products are expected to be announced, which will drive the valuation of upstream companies in the industry chain. In the second stage, the company will sell large quantities and perform high valuations. The company will welcome “Davis double-click”. In the third stage, the market gradually digested the expected difference, the market competition intensified, and the performance became the main factor driving the stock price.

At present, the ternary battery industry chain beneficiary company is in the first to second stage, the valuation is expected to continue to improve, the performance is about to honor the high valuation, the industry chain is expected to usher in "Davis double-click."

A certain securities also said that looking forward to the future, Sanyuan Battery will take the lead in iron and lithium batteries to dominate the passenger car and special-purpose vehicle market, and its space far exceeds the commercial vehicle field. The ternary battery industry chain will surely triumph, and it is expected to repeat the lithium iron phosphate battery industry. The glory of the chain is one of the long-term investment opportunities of the new energy auto sector in the future, and the investment value of the ternary battery industry chain is prominent.

From the perspective of the industrial chain, the upstream of the ternary battery includes the ternary positive electrode material precursor and the corresponding mineral resources (lithium, cobalt, manganese and nickel), and the middle reaches include ternary lithium battery cathode material, separator, electrolyte and anode material. The downstream includes ternary cells, BMS and PACK. Among them, the ternary cathode material of the ternary lithium battery core and its upstream lithium and cobalt resources are most favored by the institution.

We are optimistic about the ternary cathode material and its upstream lithium and cobalt resources in the core of ternary lithium battery.

From the perspective of ternary battery cost breakdown, the cost of the four key materials of cathode material, anode material, separator and electrolyte accounted for more than 50% of the cost of the battery.

The positive electrode material accounts for more than 30% of the battery cost, and the positive electrode material is mainly made of lithium carbonate and a precursor material. According to the calculation of Ping An Securities, the supply and demand of Sanyuan materials in 2016 is basically balanced. However, due to the explosive growth of new energy vehicles, the supply of ternary materials has become more and more tight. Although major ternary enterprises have built new factories to expand production capacity, the project construction period Long, and the date of production and the actual uncertainty, there will be a supply gap in the ternary cathode material, it is expected that the supply and demand gap will be around 9,000 tons in 2017, and the ternary material boom will continue.

For upstream resources, Industrial Securities believes that the supply and demand of lithium base materials is still tight. In view of the heavy volume of ternary materials, it is expected that lithium hydroxide production will increase significantly; after the continued low price of cobalt, the ternary battery will boost demand and superimpose global production to exceed expectations. It will break the current basic balance of supply and demand and is expected to usher in a round of rising prices.

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