The context of the photovoltaic dispute
In July 2012, the EU photovoltaic cell industry represented by German Solarworld submitted an application to the European Commission to conduct an anti-dumping investigation on Chinese photovoltaic products.
On September 6, 2012, the European Commission announced an anti-dumping investigation against Chinese photovoltaic products.
On June 4, 2013, the European Commission announced that the EU will impose a temporary anti-dumping tax of 11.8% on photovoltaic products produced in China from June 6, if the two parties fail to reach a compromise plan before August 6, the anti-dumping tax rate Will rise to 47.6%.
On July 27, 2013, after arduous and meticulous negotiations between China and Europe, the representatives of the Chinese photovoltaic industry and the European Commission reached a price commitment on the trade dispute between China and Europe in photovoltaic products. European Commission Trade Commissioner De Gucht announced that after negotiations, China and the EU have reached a "friendly" solution to the photovoltaic trade dispute, which will be submitted to the European Commission for approval in the near future.
Official data, opinions
According to statistics from the Ministry of Commerce, as of the end of 2011, China's export volume of photovoltaic products to the EU reached 21 billion euros, and photovoltaic exports to Europe accounted for 70% -80% of China's total foreign photovoltaic exports. The export of photovoltaics to Europe has a direct bearing on the employment of nearly 400,000 photovoltaic practitioners in China. Therefore, maintaining the European photovoltaic market is particularly important for the Chinese photovoltaic industry.
Ministry of Commerce spokesman Shen Danyang said that the EU is China's largest export market for photovoltaic products. Resolving photovoltaic trade frictions through dialogue and consultation will help maintain an open, cooperative, stable, and sustainable development of China-EU economic and trade relations. The results of the negotiations are positive and rich. Constructive.
Chen Huiqing, director of the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Mechanical and Electrical Products, said that the final negotiated price control level will not be announced, and how the export quantity quota will be allocated among domestic enterprises is still in the research stage, and it is inconvenient to disclose. However, most enterprises are satisfied with this. Through such trade arrangements, enterprises can maintain a reasonable export share. Overall, China can maintain a 60% market share in the EU.
Result of the negotiation: The price bottom line is 0.56 Euro per watt and the limit is 7GW per year
On July 27, the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Mechanical and Electrical Products announced that it has reached a price commitment with the European Commission ’s Trade Remedy Investigation Agency on the trade dispute between China and Europe in photovoltaic products. The minimum price commitment is about 0.57 euros / watt for a two-year period. Industry sources said that if the price commitment can be reached, it will benefit the listed photovoltaic companies with a large proportion of exports. Later, at the last moment when the price bottom line was finalized, the two sides made a concession. In the final price commitment signed by 95 Chinese photovoltaic companies and the European Commission, the price bottom line was set at 0.56 euros per watt, and the limit was 7GW per year.
The final result of this negotiation poses a challenge to the comprehensive capabilities of the enterprise. The large but not strong model represented by Suntech; with low labor costs and low-cost government land, Chinese photovoltaic companies with large amounts of investment will face a comprehensive reshuffle. However, it is a good thing to improve the photovoltaic conversion rate, improve the business model of the enterprise, and develop the photovoltaic enterprise in the domestic demand market.
Impact of the negotiations: Price commitments reflect the willingness of Chinese companies to benefit export-oriented photovoltaic companies
At the beginning of June this year, the EU's preliminary ruling decided to impose a two-month temporary anti-dumping duty of 11.8% on photovoltaic products produced in China from June 6th. If a solution cannot be reached before August 6, the anti-dumping duty rate will rise to 47.6 %. Data show that the cumulative annual sales of Chinese photovoltaic products in the EU last year exceeded 20 billion euros. Once the European Union officially imposed a high anti-dumping tax on photovoltaic products in China, domestic photovoltaic companies will lose the EU's largest export market.
On July 27th, five industry organizations including the China Electromechanical Chamber of Commerce and the China Photovoltaic Industry Alliance issued a "Joint Statement on Reaching Price Commitments for Trade Disputes between China and Europe in PV Products", saying that after negotiations, representatives of the Chinese photovoltaic industry and the European Commission The European photovoltaic products trade dispute reached a price commitment. This price commitment reflects the wishes of the vast majority of Chinese companies, and enables Chinese photovoltaic products to continue exporting to the EU under a trade arrangement negotiated by both parties and maintain a reasonable market share. Ministry of Commerce spokesman Shen Danyang expressed appreciation and welcome for this last night.
Although China and EU officials have not disclosed the details of the price commitments, there are reports that China ’s export of photovoltaic modules to the EU promises a lower price limit of about 0.57 euros / watt for a two-year period. This price is close to the previous 0.55 Euro / Watt proposed by China, while the European Union initially requested 0.65 Euro / Watt. This price level is near the cost line of European component manufacturers. In addition, China also hopes to completely solve the problem of photovoltaic anti-dumping by the end of 2014. Analysts in the new energy industry believe that if China and the EU reach an agreement this time, it will be a major benefit to the listed photovoltaic companies, which account for a large proportion of exports.
Some analysts said that the average selling price of Chinese companies to the European region is 0.52 euros / watt. Based on the above calculation of 0.56 Euros / watt, the current average price has increased by 7.69%. But the 7.69% increase is still much lower than the 11.8% temporary anti-dumping duty imposed by the EU.
The second impact of the negotiations: accelerated integration of the photovoltaic industry
"Although neither can be satisfied, both sides can accept it." Li Junfeng, deputy director of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, said, "This is not only in the interests of the enterprises of both China and Europe, but also in the national interests of both parties.
Li Rongkun, general manager of Jiangsu Huilun Solar Technology Co., Ltd., said, "This 'sub-optimal' plan has won valuable time for domestic photovoltaic companies to resume exports to Europe."
Meng Xiangan, deputy chairman of the China Renewable Energy Society, pointed out that the price of 0.57 euros / watt will be significantly higher than the previous sales price of Chinese photovoltaic products exported to the EU, and the price advantage of Chinese products will be weakened. In addition, China's export of photovoltaic products to the EU will also be subject to quantitative restrictions, which will be realized in the form of annual quotas. Both of these points will lead to accelerated integration of the domestic photovoltaic industry, leading companies have greater bearing capacity, and will be further supported in accordance with the national encouragement policy, while other companies will face integration or elimination.
The third impact of the negotiations: the total export restrictions of the photovoltaic industry accelerate the industry reshuffle
Although overall, China can still maintain a 60% market share in the EU. Many people in the industry said that under this plan, there will be more fierce competition among photovoltaic companies. Large manufacturers have limited declines in European shipments, but small factories will sell more market share.
The person in charge of the above-mentioned photovoltaic leading companies believes that the impact of the EU's "dual anti-" has been far-reaching, but from the results of the negotiations, the future competition in the European market will be more conducive to large enterprises, and the total export of 7GW will be concentrated on the ownership Large manufacturers with advantages in channels and government resources.
Wang Haisheng believes that the biggest impact of the result of the China-EU trade dispute negotiation lies in the export volume restrictions. After the low-cost competition in the past few years, the current price level of domestic photovoltaic companies has been comparable, so the impact of the EU "price limit" is not great, but the annual "limit" requirement of not more than 7GW will trigger a new round of domestic The fierce competition of enterprises in the European market, the strength of enterprises will be reflected in whether they can get as much as possible from the 7GW "cake".
A person in charge of a medium-sized silicon wafer and panel manufacturer that has been discontinued for nearly two years in Zhejiang said that in the past, there was no quantity limit in the European market. If small and medium-sized enterprises like them autonomously go to European countries to compete for customers, as long as the price is appropriate and the quality Level crossing, the problem of getting orders is not particularly big. However, once the “limited edition†model is launched for future exports to Europe, it will undoubtedly be more conducive to large enterprises with greater brand influence and smoother sales channels.
Wang Haisheng said that how to allocate the total amount of 7GW will become a problem in front of the Chinese government and the photovoltaic industry. It does not rule out the possibility that photovoltaics will implement a "quota system" for European exports in the future. As a result, the export volume will accelerate to the concentration of large manufacturers. The above-mentioned heads of Zhejiang enterprises believe that if the Chinese government really implements a quota system in the future, it will undoubtedly make SMEs in a dilemma of survival worse. The choice left to them may be to accelerate their withdrawal from the photovoltaic industry.
According to Wang Haisheng's analysis, if the “limited†model is launched for European PV exports, there may be some differentiation among the more than 40 A-share PV listed companies. In the future, the allocation of quotas may be drawn by the scale of production capacity. Among A-share photovoltaic companies, the capacity of companies such as Hairun Photovoltaic, Yijing Optoelectronics, Zhongli Technology, Dongfang Risheng and Sunflower ranks in the forefront. Under the "system" priority sharing of 7GW "cake".
"Domestic photovoltaic companies are decreasing their dependence on the European market, which means that in the future, their production may no longer be the only one in Europe. In the long run, the main positions for corporate competition will be concentrated in the domestic market and emerging markets such as Asia-Pacific and the Middle East. . For companies, do not need to pay too much attention to the gains and losses of the European market. "Wang Haisheng said.
Liang Junmin, deputy general manager of the photovoltaic business department of Shenzhen CLP Investment Co., Ltd., said that once quotas are given, domestic companies may "fight" for them. As a result, large companies may get most of the cake, but small and medium-sized companies that did not participate in the survey There are no quotas for enterprises, and even if they are, it is still a lot of money. It is difficult to maintain survival, so they have to give up the European market.
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