Lei Feng network (search "Lei Feng network" public concern) by: Author of this article Li Zhiyong, ten years plank road programmers, there is a fun public number: pondering things, with interest can be concerned.

Since the cost of copying and reusing the software and data after digitization is zero, it is free, and this feature allows open source to permanently destroy Microsoft's license fee model and make the nature of competition become a battle for control. war. In the process, what kind of role the software can play, we have talked a lot, but what kind of role the atom-based hardware can play , is rarely talked about, this article discusses this issue.

| The grippers of the digital world

There is no doubt that the digitization is deepening: the record of everyone’s life is almost 100% digitized, and the digitization of the company’s behavior is almost the same as that of the individual. With the development of the Internet of Everything, products in the industry, such as turbines, will generate their own. The digital description.

This kind of digitization has two meanings. First, various objects such as people or enterprises have their own data descriptions, and one is to have corresponding behaviors on these data to make these data related and interact. If statistics on the flow of shops, without analysis do not have an impact on the actual business decisions, there is no value in this kind of dataization.

The fact that the two points mentioned above are occurring and that the degree of the future will surely continue to deepen is usually not controversial. But what many people are not aware of is that the process of digitization is also the process of transfer of control rights. When every thing made of atoms is eventually digitized, the newly developed basic needs are actually formed. One by one, the need to chat and find information on individuals has spawned new types of products such as IM and search engines. This has already happened.

This transfer of control will overturn the existing business model. We must not forget how much money a company can make depends on its ability to control the system of brands, users, products, services, and suppliers. The transfer of control rights is precisely this kind of control, so it will inevitably lead to changes in business models. For example, after WeChat came out, SMS became an optional service. Obviously, the corresponding profit would be transferred from the operator to Tencent.

In the process of this transfer of control, pure hardware companies are very embarrassing , because jumping out of control, the transfer of control rights is moving from the real space to the digital space, and pure hardware companies are only providers of infrastructure. There is no such control. Pure hardware companies are doing a lot more difficult than software companies, and they lose control of the digital world and become simple channels.

| Why is hardware hard to do and not easy to make money?

Internet companies use software to acquire customers. In the early days, the cost for each additional customer would be almost 0. In the late stage, the user's acquisition costs such as traffic are the main factors. Therefore, the foundation of the profit model of Internet companies is the size of users and the number of active users. However, for each additional user of the hardware company, the cost of the hardware and other costs are also incurred. Therefore, there can be no scale of the users of the software company.

This gap can be compared with the application store. According to the Questmobile report No. 7/14, DAU's DAU is 28 million, 360 mobile phone assistant is 18 million, and the DAUs of the best Huawei and Xiaomi app stores are 3.32 million and 1.41 million, which is about 10 times. The difference. This further led to the different nature of the digital business and the atomic business. In the digital business, companies rely on ARPU to make money, and atomic businesses rely on ARPU for companies to live. To make matters worse, the hardware company may not have any say on what software the user is using. It is not necessary for you to pre-install the user. For example, Samsung has no chance to compete in the app store and Google Play.

In this way, it is necessary to make the difference purely in the hardware, but it is really difficult at this point, any change in the production process is actually very strenuous, the more difficult the size, the thickness of these things, the later, The key is that users may not feel it. As a result, hardware companies will become channels and the same as operators face. However, the benefit of operators is that a certain degree of monopoly guarantees that users must pay for tolls, but there is no protection for general-purpose hardware products such as the mobile phone market.

In simple terms, hardware companies do not have enough software, and they do not have the right to price in the entire ecosystem. The most traditional selling model faces a situation that cannot be differentiated, so it is very difficult to do so.

| Way out there?

Which hardware company can find a way out there?

The first is Apple's gameplay. It does not distinguish between software and hardware. It only outputs experience. This is equivalent to doing it yourself.

The second is to use the window period of the new category to turn itself into a software and data company that competes for control of the system. Outsourcing the production of hardware to a company such as Foxconn, and Foxconn can import robots, etc., to greatly optimize their own production processes. This is equivalent to going up.

The third is really to make their own products are different, so that you need to be in the screen, CPU and other elements of the real advantage, Samsung is on this road. But this is very difficult. The scale effect of Internet companies can hardly be replicated. However, considering the flow of talents on hardware, it is actually very difficult for you to handle it. Others are uncertain. The main advantages of technology are mainly companies like Qualcomm and Intel. This is equivalent to the development of the next.

The fourth is that if there are personalized products, such as watches, then the design can establish an independent brand. But from the performance of Apple Watch, this is not very easy. This is equivalent to the oldest brand line, allowing non-technical components in the product to have more say, which has not been proven in the technology industry. In the apparel and watch industry has been proven. Your expensive watch has never been the most expensive one.

The core advantage of hardware is that if there is no hardware, there is no entrance to interact with the digital world. In the early days of new products, only hardware companies have the opportunity to integrate and experience products that are good enough. The barriers to hardware are complex production and sales chains, and it's very hard for people to get software. So for the hardware company, it has a first-mover advantage in the fight for system control.

| War for control

If divided further, it can divide a company's position in the ecosystem into three levels:

One is having control of the entire system, such as Apple or Google’s control over the Android ecosystem.

The second is that there is a voice in the league (most of the time I am not able to do it), such as Qualcomm.

The third kind is the right to say nothing, and now all kinds of mobile phone manufacturers are actually in this state.

Then divide all businesses into governments, industries, businesses and individuals. Then we can find that the best mode in the personal field is the Apple and Google mode, that is to say, the hardware companies either do independent ecology or take advantage of new product types and make a transition to the back end. The above-mentioned downward development, relying solely on hardware differentiation, is a big idea with a small investment. As the calculation shifts towards the back end, the less likely the hardware is to be differentiated, the weaker the right to speak, and the less likely it is to make money.

In the enterprise-oriented area, the situation is similar to this. The reason in the bone is that the basic trend of hardware and software in these two areas is separable. Only in the initial stage, people who do hardware and software at the same time have control over user experience. Advantages . When Android or computing is transferred to the cloud later, hardware and software begin to separate. The hardware company loses its voice and becomes a channel.

In the direction of the industry is a bit different, this time because of the size of the reason can not appear to be an intermediary like Android, so the digital itself will lead to the integration of hardware and software, so the trend in the bone is that hardware companies want to become a solution provider, that is provided Hardware also provides software. To Goverment's business is likely to be more like this.

This means that the most critical node for hardware companies is the emergence of a completely separate software and hardware system such as Windows or Android. Before clear segmentation, the entire ecology is basically dominated by hardware. After a clear segmentation, whoever has control can make money. After the software and hardware are clearly separated, the hardest thing is to make products, such as mobile phone manufacturers, which have little effect on the high added value of Qualcomm and Intel. Their high-tech added value guarantees that they are in any kind of ecology. You will find your place in the system. This puts a higher demand on the hardware companies that make products. You must not only know what to do next, but also know where the control points are and what you really want. It is not enough to know only to do mobile phones, but also to know what role mobile phones can play in the follow-up session.

In the visible range, what can be the control point? This point must be different for different ecosystems, but there are indeed several models that have emerged.

A method of contention for control points is Google's method , which uses the upper layer of open source standardized hardware, which can be an operating system (Android), and then allows itself to control the content-based services derived from this layer of system (Google Play). This layer of the operating system can go upwards, become a smart layer, or go down such as open source hardware, so that a certain type of hardware is based on the same development board and SoC. Cognitive advantage is crucial here. Everyone feels that there is no chance when it is important.

One way to control points of control is to form an alliance, but to ensure their indispensability, and to ensure their own voice , such as the Wintel Alliance. Huawei's method of doing the cloud is not to touch the application, but not to touch the data. In fact, this is the path taken. So long as the ecology can win, it can win.

One way to control points is to use general-purpose intelligence . If it exists and data is driven, it is as good as maintaining its own data advantage.

| Summary

The most interesting thing here is that from a control point of view, there will only be one controller in a site, so it will be ambitious, paranoid and successful for the future, or it will hang. It seems that the big companies that want to deal with their livelihood seem to be getting more and more difficult. The long tail effect of the future may be more and more obvious, and the head company may be bigger than Apple.

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