Samsung holds weak lock throat, shocked TSMC

This day finally came! After two years of layout, Samsung attacked Taiwan’s DRAM and panel industries, and Jianfeng pointed to the foundry leader TSMC.

18-inch equipment factory battle Samsung storm, TSMC hard to force the scene, to return to November 2011, the State University of New York Albany branch. On campus, an 18-inch wafer fab plant is stepping up and down, and two clean rooms have started operations. TSMC has sent the best engineers and companies such as Samsung, IBM, GlobalFoundries, and Intel. , jointly develop the next generation of 18-inch wafer production line.

This is the world's most advanced semiconductor production line, a production line must use 120 different semiconductor devices; machine design approaching the physical limit, not only the larger wafer area, the line width directly challenge 10nm, theoretically, the semiconductor line width 7nm The limit is not far.

“The development of 18-inch technology is extremely expensive, and no company can afford it alone,” said Zeng Xueliang, former general manager of Ameco. Therefore, companies participating in the development plan will invest US$4.4 billion.

However, what kind of semiconductor platform will be selected?

Everyone was careful in this cooperation. Before the departure of TSMC engineers, Chairman Zhang Zhongmou’s most concerned question was, “Will these people be taken away by (Samsung)?” For confidentiality, the engineers only focus on verifying the new process. Machine.

The laboratory at Albany is full of spooky atmosphere of spy and spy. According to Sematech, many of the originally planned cooperation plans involve the confidentiality of companies, no one is willing to participate, and finally “dumped” the companies. Even the technical staff of the foreign faction are prevented. Some of the company’s expatriates are not even able to connect back to the company’s network. All discussions must rely on internal personnel for remote control.

On this day, it was reported that people were nervous about the news. The list of the first batch of selected equipment was revealed. Of the 10 selected machines, two were South Korean semiconductor equipment manufacturers.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. is extremely nervous because Samsung has once again resorted to its vertical integration strategy and used semiconductor equipment to establish a threshold for competition with TSMC. This is a “weakness” that TSMC is unable to focus on.

In the past, He Zhirong, the general manager of Epson Semiconductor, which is behind South Korea's semiconductor equipment manufacturing capabilities, observed. The development of semiconductor equipment is not only better than technology, but also more than financial resources. "A lot of South Korean semiconductor equipment companies have dropped out after producing equipment," he said.

Three factors make the final decision point for semiconductor equipment. Why did Korean semiconductor equipment makers suddenly enter the cutting-edge production line?

It turns out that Samsung has been investing for the past two years and has taken a stake in South Korea’s semiconductor equipment factory. It turned Samsung’s originally established semiconductor equipment company into Samsung’s sole proprietorship and transferred Samsung’s cutting-edge technology to these subsidiaries.

In fact, South Korea has used the power of Taiwan and Japan to cultivate equipment manufacturers for itself. A semiconductor engineer analyzed that many semiconductors and LCDs have the same manufacturing process. Samsung asked Qimei Electric and other cooperative plants. “If you want to take orders from Samsung, you need to use Korean equipment.” Samsung relied on AUO and Chimei to produce a series of Korean equipment manufacturers. Afterwards, he upgraded his own R&D results to these Korean suppliers and became a vanguard force with TSMC.

“This is a big threat,” said Jian Yufu, a distinguished professor at the National Department of Industrial Engineering at the National Department of Industrial Engineering and the convener of the Smart Electronic National Plan Industry. Three factors have been combined to make semiconductor equipment the decisive battle point between Samsung and TSMC.

One reason: Moore's Law approaches the limit. In the past, the high gross profit margin of nearly 10% of TSMC's energy enjoyment was due to continuous “overtaking” on TSMC's advanced manufacturing processes, which reduced costs and tied customers. In the past, the wafer production cost decreased by 29% in one year, but with Moore’s Law approaching the limit It is increasingly difficult to maintain cost advantages.

Reason two: The first-line equipment business consolidation In the past two years, fewer and fewer equipment manufacturers have been able to develop advanced processes, and future equipment manufacturers will have greater initiative.

In 2010, the world’s top ten semiconductor equipment makers had acquired multiple acquisitions. Although there are only 12 companies with the ability to invest in 18-inch plants and some advanced process technologies, there may be only one or two remaining equipment manufacturers, and the same one in the future. The equipment will be twice as expensive as it is now. "The cost-effectiveness of the 18-inch plant may be eaten up by the increased equipment costs," says Jane Sangfu.

To drink milk is not necessarily to raise cattle, but if there is only one ranch in the world, the price of milk is probably decided by the ranch.

Reason 3: Changes in semiconductor technology. Jane Yufu analysis, changes in semiconductor technology will also change the semiconductor equipment industry competition.

In the past, only logical ICs were smaller than anyone else. In this area, the top ten semiconductor equipment companies in the world have mastered most of the market. However, when Moore's Law comes to an end, it will be compared with who can use semiconductors to more effectively produce MEMS, antennas, analog power supplies, etc. "The equipment needed for these fields is different." Samsung at this time cut into the equipment industry, just right Preemptively card this new business opportunity.

If it can no longer quickly reduce costs, foundry will become a mature industry, "Taiwan Semiconductor's core capabilities will go to equipment manufacturers who" he analyzed.

Once Samsung enters the 18-inch equipment supply chain, it not only owns key equipment, but also sells the old machines to its rivals, and the latest machines are left for their own use, improving their competitive advantage.

Intel also has long-term investment in semiconductor equipment manufacturers, and even can use the machines of older generations than others to adjust and make the most advanced process.

Samsung has created a new standard TSMC’s cost advantage and has been undermined by a foreign semiconductor analyst. Samsung’s strategy is to use cooperation to make its own key technology a standard, and then place its own advantaged technology on the platform. Leading technology that cannot be replaced by others, "The key point is what is Samsung's superior technology that he wants to attack?"

In November 2011, the brand opened by Samsung revealed some of the answers. One of the machines that was selected to join the R&D program was a machine tool for the most advanced process. This technology is the key technology for the production of mobile phone chips and is a key technology that cannot be bypassed. Currently, the only Korean machine that has been verified and purchased by TSMC in recent years is used in this process. The competitiveness of South Korea already has a global level.

In the more than 900 processes of wafer manufacturing, as long as a few channels are mastered by Samsung, it will affect TSMC's cost structure and competitiveness. Moreover, Samsung is good at leveraging the force. “They will ask IC design companies, you have to enter My mobile phone supply chain will use my foundry process,” a semiconductor company revealed. Samsung reintroduced the vertical integration strategy and hit TSMC.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. rarely moves to find equipment suppliers to co-design new machines. What's more, Taiwan’s semiconductor equipment supply chain is not capable of following TSMC and resisting Samsung’s offensive. “In the past, TSMC believed that this was not the industry and should not be invested,” said a TSMC employee. And, after the development of equipment, if other semiconductor companies do not use it, there is no economic benefit at all. This time, Taiwan has only the crystal boat (fab box) that Jia Deng Precision developed to enter the 18-inch front-end supply chain. Compared to business, development has a long way to go.

Moreover, sticking to his own business, TSMC has repeatedly missed the opportunity to invest in semiconductor equipment, such as Jia Deng precision, had once sought to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. investment was rejected, and finally received Intel's capital injection.

In the field of easier detection and packaging, there are still companies in Taiwan that can produce equipment. However, in the difficult front-end process, it is almost a blank space. Without its own semiconductor equipment industry chain, TSMC may be exposed to the threat of Samsung.

Since 2011, TSMC has started to power up. On December 2, senior vice president of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Zuodaichuan announced that TSMC will send engineers to various equipment manufacturers to jointly design advanced machines used by TSMC in the future. “This is something that has not been seen in the past 10 years,” a semiconductor company said. However, even experienced operators designing new machines will take at least two to three years.

Now, Samsung has created a fleet of semiconductor equipment. With the past strategy to defeat rivals in the DRAM industry, TSMC confronted TSMC. In 2012, Samsung invested US$7 billion in capital expenditure in the foundry industry, setting a record high.

In order to maintain its cost advantage, TSMC must work with Samsung to develop a new process. At the same time, TSMC must be careful not to allow Samsung's camp to gradually expand. Now, every step of the decision is critical.

How can Taiwan protect this most important flagship of Taiwan's high-tech industry? Facing the new chess game, how should Taiwan's semiconductor equipment industry develop? This is not just a matter for TSMC, but it is also a matter of serious consideration for Taiwan’s science and technology industry policy.