In business talks, all are profit-seeking as "natural", LED manufacturers are of course "recognition of the time", watching the competition in the industry expand, they have to turn to niche-type applications. Now they are beginning to realize that the automotive LED field is one of the few blue ocean markets that can be maintained in quantity and price.
As long as there is a place for cars, there is a place for car lighting. We need to know what kind of blue-green market the car LED will be. Let's start with the current situation of the car market. According to the report "Global Automotive Parts Suppliers Research" released by consulting firm Roland Berger recently, the production of global light vehicles is expected to continue to rise in the next two years, but the growth rate will drop sharply. Among them, Europe will maintain a "lower level", Japan will "decline", the North American Free Trade Zone will "moderately grow", and the Chinese market will remain the only major growth driver.
In fact, relevant surveys show that the Chinese auto market in 2015 has slowed from the annual double-digit growth rate to 3%. The global auto market as a whole has a growth rate of only 1.6%. Although the situation in 2016 is not optimistic, it will continue the micro-growth trend in 2015, which is about 4% year-on-year. Both the SUV and the automotive aftermarket will maintain a strong momentum. In addition, during the period of 2014-2016, the new energy vehicle started an explosive growth period, with a compound annual growth of 42% in 2015-2020. By 2020, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to reach 4.5%.
On the other hand, foreign media recently reported that the global automotive LED lighting market is expected to reach 7 billion US dollars by 2020, with a compound annual growth rate of over 18%. Looking back at the situation of China's vehicle lamp supporting market, it has grown from RMB 17.8 billion in 2010 to RMB 25.5 billion in 2013. In 2015, China's automobile sales reached more than 31 million vehicles. According to this calculation, the corresponding vehicle lamp supporting market will also exceed 35 billion yuan, which makes it possible for the lamp companies to have good room for growth in the future.
By comparing the output value of the automotive lighting LED market in 2015 and 2020, Lu Lijun, an industrial analyst of Jibang Technology, also pointed out that the global LED output value of automotive exterior lighting is estimated to reach US$1.21 billion in 2015, reaching US$2.29 billion by 2020. The annual compound growth rate is 8%. Among them, the headlight module (near-light) LED package has the highest growth rate of output value, and the annual compound growth rate is 11%. The exterior lighting includes directional lights, fog lights, far and near lights and position lights. The growth in the number of high-power applications is higher than the annual price decline, driving the annual compound growth rate of output value to exceed 8%, and the penetration rate is less than 15%. It also reflects the future growth. According to its disclosure, the total number of LEDs for exterior lighting in 2015 reached 2.79 billion, and it is expected that there will be 3.67 billion in 2020. Among them, the number of LED packages of far and near lights and position lights is more than 15%, and the number of LED packages in the headlight module has the highest growth rate, with a compound annual growth rate of 23%.
In terms of the market value of LED lighting for interior lighting, it is estimated to reach US$605 million in 2015 and is expected to decline to 603 million US dollars in 2020. At the same time, due to the fact that most of the LEDs in the car are low-power LEDs, the overall in-vehicle output value will show negative growth in the next five years. The estimated annual growth rate of the interior panel of the car panel is 3%. According to the introduction, the LED package low, medium and high power respectively look at the changes in the output value of the LED package, the automotive low-power LED market will shrink rapidly in the next five years (2015-2020) (see the figure below). With the gradual shrinking of the output value of low-power chips in LED packaging, high-power chips will show rapid growth, and it is expected that automotive LED applications will actively enter the high-power market in the future.
Although it is estimated that the output value of the LED market for interior lighting will decline in 2020, the LED package of the interior panel will show a contrarian growth. According to statistics, the LED-related application panel will replace the mechanical instrument, and with the increase in the size of the central control panel, it is expected that the compound annual growth rate of the interior panel of the vehicle will be 3%.
It is understood that in the automotive market, halogen lamps are still the most popular light source because replacement costs are usually low. However, halogen bulbs generate about 2500 degrees of heat, so that headlights with halogen lamps as light sources have some optical design difficulties. HID gas mapping lamps provide a wider horizontal space and better energy efficiency.
Relevant research results show that high-quality high-end LED car headlights can enhance road safety, provide better visibility, reduce energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions, and improve the appearance of the car, and its service life can be improved. Up to 25,000 hours. However, some people have pointed out that due to cost, technology and regulatory factors, LED as a car headlight is still immature, at least in the next three to five years can not fully replace halogen and xenon lamps. In this regard, the international large-scale technical investigation consultancy Technavio recently released the global automotive LED lighting market report that LED lights will gradually strengthen the safety and performance with the continuous development of innovative technology, and is expected to gradually reduce the price, then the automotive LED The sales of lamps will also gradually increase.
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